Are the presidential polls really accurate?

by jwright

National columnist Michael Barone wrote an interesting Internet article on presidential polls and their accuracy where he said in part, “…this year especially, many who ask if we can trust the polls are usually concerned about something else: Can we trust the poll when one of the presidential candidates is black?

“It is commonly said that the polls in the 1982 California and the 1989 Virginia gubernatorial races overstated the margin for the black Democrats who were running -- Tom Bradley and Douglas Wilder. The theory to account for this is that some poll respondents in each case were unwilling to say they were voting for the white Republican.

So, if I’m understanding Mr. Barone accurately, many white folks when polled may respond in favor of a black candidate, if there is one. In this case that would be Senator Obama. Inside the voting booth they may vote their conscience, perhaps NOT voting for Senator Obama. Afterward, if polled while exiting, they may state that they favored Obama, essentially skewing the pollsters results.

Going one step farther, IF Obama then loses to Senator McCain, all we’ll hear from the left for months on end is, ‘voter fraud; voter suppression; another stolen election!’ Add to this, we may see litigation in many of the states where the vote difference was close; litigation in hopes of overturning the initial vote count in favor of the loser. We watched this agonizing spectacle in 2000 when vice-president Gore attempted to use the Florida State Supreme Court to “cherry pick” several select counties for a partial recount in order to circumvent George W. Bush’s eventual small lead. Unfortunately, due to the months of possibly innaccurate political polling statistics, what took place in Florida in 2000 may look like a walk-in-the-park in 2008.

For Michael Barone's complete article, go to: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122463210033356561.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

Thanks, jaq~