Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Causality; Coincidence; Casualty…

by jwright

Causality; Coincidence; Casualty… three words that in most cases have no connection. Unless they do.

Anymore I follow the stock market only to the point of determining if the Dow-Jones average went up today or dropped. I’m not an investor any more. My history of investing is similar to my history as a poker player; I’m not very good at either. You can’t get ahead by breaking even so I avoid both the market and the card game.

I do watch political trends as many in the market do and I’m seeing one now. That’s where Causality may be in play. Since Treasury Secretary Paulson and President Bush proclaimed that we needed a $700-billion bail out of Wall Street, presidential candidate Obama’s poll ratings have been creeping ever higher. Conversely, the stock market has not. We’ve seen record losses almost on a daily basis. Is it a Coincidence or is there more to it? The dreaded cause and effect factor?

Do the market investors see in Obama something that is worrisome? Frankly, I do, based on both he and his running mate’s avoidance in answering a simple question: which of your proposed spending programs would you drop or cut? Both Obama and Biden have successfully avoided naming any, instead they ramble on about the importance of the programs they will keep, most of them requiring huge increases in spending, spending tax dollars that aren’t there. Give Senator McCain some credit-- at least twice now he has said he would enact a spending freeze except for defense and veterans affairs.

Casualties, the third word I listed, might come into play with an Obama presidency. Though Obama would seek to build a new economy from the “bottom up,” there’s no way that unfortunate economic times will not affect those at the bottom.

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